NFSI Compact, evidence-based cost/benefit scenario for ARUD Roll-out Canada wide

Bottom Line

One-time sticker price @ $349 per unit for every licensed gun owner in Canada (≈ 2.43 million people) → initial outlay ≈ $847.5 million. (RCMP data)

Illustrative annual savings from fewer firearm incidents (healthcare + policing + counselling + productivity + legal): roughly $50 million – $735 million per year depending on the number of incidents averted and cost assumptions (see scenarios below). (Statistics Canada)

Net: Under moderate-to-optimistic effectiveness assumptions, the program could recoup its initial investment within a few years through reduced healthcare, policing, and legal burdens — while also preventing deaths, trauma, and long-term social costs that are hard to quantify.

Key Baseline Facts

• Licensed gun owners (PAL holders): ≈ 2.43 million (RCMP/Commissioner of Firearms)

• Police-reported firearm-related violent incidents (2023): ≈ 14,416 (StatsCan)

• Suicides (2023): ≈ 4,447 total; 700–800 firearm suicides (Health Infobase). Prevention of firearm access can significantly reduce suicide risk.

• Average healthcare cost (non-fatal firearm injury): ≈ $8,825 (De Oliveira et al., PMC). Severe cases can reach $150k+ when lifetime costs and productivity losses are included.

Exact Arithmetic

• Licensed owners = 2,425,627 (RCMP)

• Unit price = $349

• Total cost = 2,425,627 × 349 = $847,543,823 (one-time national roll-out investment)

Modeled Annual Savings

Modeled annual savings from ARUD deployment demonstrate substantial cost benefits even at modest effectiveness levels. In a conservative scenario where 10% of firearm-related incidents are prevented, approximately 1,442 incidents would be avoided each year, yielding annual savings between $17.3 million and $245.1 million based on per-incident cost estimates ranging from $12,000 to $170,000. Under a moderate scenario (30% prevention), 4,325 incidents avoided could save between $51.9 million and $735.3 million annually. In an optimistic case (60% prevention), savings rise dramatically to between $103.8 million and $1.47 billion per year. Even at the low end, annual savings offset a significant portion of the $847 million national roll-out cost, while moderate to high levels of effectiveness would quickly exceed the initial investment—excluding the additional social and human benefits from lives saved and trauma prevented.

Non-Monetary Benefits

• Lives Saved / Suicides Prevented: Reduced access during crisis moments prevents irreversible harm and family trauma.

• Faster Recovery & Evidence Capture: Real-time GPS and AV data shorten investigations and improve prosecution rates.

• Reduced ER and Trauma Loads: Fewer gunshot injuries free up critical hospital capacity.

• Improved Productivity & Mental Health: Less violence means fewer lost work days and counselling costs.

• Political & Social Co-Benefits: A federal subsidized roll-out acts as a non-partisan harm-reduction strategy appealing to both safety advocates and responsible owners.

Policy Design Recommendations

• Targeted Pilot Phases: Launch in high-risk areas and expand nation-wide as evidence builds.

• Insurer and Retailer Partnerships: Offer discounts and bundle programs to offset federal costs.

• Law-Enforcement Integration: 24/7 ARUD alert channels to maximize recovery speed.

• Privacy by Design: Owner-controlled data access to ensure public trust and adoption.

• Evaluation & Evidence: Independent cost-benefit audits after pilot phase to confirm ROI.

Primary Sources

• RCMP – Commissioner of Firearms Reports

• Statistics Canada – Firearm Incidents 2023

• Health Infobase – Suicide Statistics 2023

• De Oliveira et al., Health-Care Costs for Firearm Injury Survivors (PMC)

• Justice Canada & Provincial Costing Studies on Firearm Violence